DRAB – Difference from a Run-A-Ball

Tags

cricket, DRAB, run-a-ball, Statistics

Run-a-Ball Difference was the original name, but the acronym (RABD) isn’t very mouth-friendly. DRAB sits better, in one’s gob, and adds a touch of irony.

WHAT IS IT THEN?

In T20 cricket, and other limited overs contests, run-rates and required run-rates can be a little deceptive. In 50 over cricket, in particular, the required run-rate appears to react very sluggishly to developments in the game. In T20 cricket, the same is true at the start of the innings, so the progress (or otherwise) of your team can be difficult to ascertain.

DRAB IN ACTION … http://www.birdfolk.co.uk/cricmob

IN SHORT – the more this number climbs, the better your team is doing. If it drops, or becomes negative, progress is being checked.

DETAILS
I propose a simple statistical alternative: the “run-a-ball difference”. In all limited overs cricket the idea of scoring at a run-a-ball has long been something of a benchmark – while 120 represents a poor score in T20, 300 has long been the sign of a good score in ODIs. Observing the difference between a team’s current score and the score that they would have had they scored at a run-a-ball is a useful way to judge your team’s progress.

For example, when setting a score, your team has 60 from the first 8 overs – a run-rate of 7.5 per over. This equates to +12 using the “run-a-ball difference”. 8 overs at a run-a-ball is 48 runs so, with 60 runs, the team are 12 ahead of that. Say they score 20 off the next 2 overs, reaching 80 from 10, a run-rate of 8 .. that doesn’t sound like a terribly big increase, but in terms of the run-a-ball difference, they have from from +12 to +20, perhaps illustrating the improvement in a more tangible fashion.

One may apply run-a-ball difference slightly differently when a team is chasing a score: for example your opponents have made 175. At the beginning of the chase, the run-a-ball difference is 55 … a run-a-ball provides 120 and your team needs to find an “extra” 55 runs. A few overs go by and your team is 60 from 8 with 115 runs still required from 72 balls – a run-rate of 7.5 and a required run-rate of 9.6. Looking alone at either the 7.5 or the 9.6, it can be hard to know how your team is doing, but run-a-ball difference is now 43 (115 runs required minus 72 balls left). The fact that 43 is a fair chunk less than the initial 55, helps me understand that progress is being made.

Advertisements

Pathetic Points System

Tags

Andrew Strauss, Bilateral, cricket, Points System, Tests

At least that’s what everyone appears to be saying.
I wrote a response to the 12th Man letter written (possibly) by Andrew Strauss.
I imagine it will disappear into a spam/junk/clutter filter of some kind.
But here, for your pleasure, are my brief thoughts on the idea:

Hi Andrew,
Thanks for your letter 😉
I’m a fan of the points system. I heard, on the radio today, a very typical English reaction. The kind of thing I’ve been guilty of myself many times.

Dear old Aggers (I think it was) suggested that the points system might make a captain more concerned about chasing a win, and consequently they might be more defensive. Therefore, it’s a bad idea.

OK – maybe that *could* happen. How about the reverse – it could make a captain MORE aggressive. (S)He might be desperate for extra points to help win the series. How very English it was to dwell only on the negative.

I cannot honestly see a problem beyond the impossibility to please everyone with the amount of points awarded for each type of game played.

Yours spiffingly,
Dave.

Graeme Swann, Geoff Boycott, and I.

Tags

cricket, Geoff Boycott, Graeme Swann

But mostly them.

Graeme made me scream happily, 255 times, for every 29.96 squirms – the most successful English spinner in the history of test cricket.

In the year 2000 (I was a fan of his county numbers) and I rang “Test Match Special”. I asked Sir Geoffrey Boycott if the young lad, who had scored a few first class hundreds and had a few score of first class wickets, would get a go …. “do you watch cricket” was the surly reply.

Eight years (and 255 wickets) later Sir Geoff could have eaten his words, but I’m sure it was me that was wrong.

Now Graeme has retired – and as England’s most successful test spin bowler in history. I freely admit that he is the type of cricketer that I always wanted to be – sarcasm and all. The confidence with which he gave the press exactly what they wanted but not quite the sound-bite that they were expecting, was lovely.

Graeme, thank you.
Boycott – don’t be so quick to judge.

GRAEME’S NUMBERS:
http://www.espncricinfo.com/england/content/player/20431.html

The Far-Reaching Pain of a Single Spinner

Tags

Alistair Cook, Che Pujara, cricket, Dust Bowl, England, Flat Deck, Heat, India, Spin Bowling

From the first England vs India test, there were the following non-surprises:
(1) India bat batter then England on flat pitches.
(2) India’s spinners know how to bowl.
(3) England are terrified of not having (at least) 3 quick bowlers.
(4) England are in deep shit.

There were also the following partial surprises:
(1) Che Pujara is amazing – however good you may have thought he was before this, an unbeaten double-ton is never expected.
(2) Alistair Cook is astounding – we knew he was solid and a grafter, but really, his (almost lone) defiance was as stunning as Pujara’s – especially when you factor in that Cookie faced the better bowling.
(3) The biggest surprise though, was that both of India’s quick bowlers out-bowled ALL three of England’s.

Why Were India’s Quick Bowlers So Much Better?
Think about it.
Put yourself in the mind of one of the England bowlers.
You’ve lost the toss, the pitch looks like a polished airport runway. In front of you are top notch batsmen who have played on flat decks like this all their lives. The heat is already sapping your energy and the bright sun is hurting your eyes. You have about 20 overs of bowling hell to go though. If you get 2 wickets, you’ll be over the moon.

Now let’s try to pry inside the mind of an Indian pace bowler.
You’ve won the toss. Time to put you feet up and laugh at the English bowlers. Ah, we’ve got 500 on the board. This’ll be fun. Our TWO spinners will bowl forever on this deck; it should break up and turn later. I might have a couple of 3 or 4 over spells to bowl today. Gosh, I’ve not had a bowl yet, I reckon I could do some damage. I’m really going to tear in, I’ll show Dhoni that I can do a job; I know how to get wickets on these pitches.

We really should not have been surprised.
But I was supposed to talk about England’s solitary spinner.
But I was.
With a twin-spin attack, the England fast bowler’s minds wouldn’t be so afraid of the heat or bowling such long spells. They might not be afraid of going all-out. They might well try to bowl quicker, not just try to preserve themselves.
Still, what do I know?
I’ve never played cricket.

Why I like England’s Squad

Tags

Afghanistan, bounce, cricket, England, pace, slower ball, spin, t20, world cup, yorker

The bats: England’s batting is youthful (Hales, Bairstow, Butler), powerful (Morgan, Bairstow, Butler, Keiswetter, Wright, Lumb), varied (Morgan, Butler, Bell), and experienced (Bell, Keiswetter, Morgan). I didn’t even get to mention Samit Patel; who I rate very highly and could turn out to be one of the most valuable players in the tournament. Add to that, bowlers who can bat; and that’s a GREAT line up!

The balls: England’s bowling attack is as varied as it is possible to be. Jade “Dirt Bag” has a bag of tricks equal to that of anyone in the international game: slower balls, yorkers and (up to) 90mph pace. Steven Finn is tall, rapid, accurate (mostly) and one of the two or three most promising young fast bowlers in the world. Stuart Broad, when the mood takes him, can be a tremendous bowler of nous and venom – and he will want to make a point as he has been off the pace earlier this year. Swanny is one of the best spinners in the world, and aided by Patel and/or Briggs (both left armers to his right) should provide all the slow bowling England require.

The outsiders: Bressie-lad is a canny and experienced bowler who can bat. He will be a brilliant replacement for any injured bowler but, in the sub-continent, I can’t get him in the starting line-up. Ravi, I’m not a fan of. I want to like him, but I get frustrated by the lack of frustration he shows when he screws up royally. And his chin-pit.

The problem is that England can only select 11!