DRAB – Difference from a Run-A-Ball

Tags

cricket, DRAB, run-a-ball, Statistics

Run-a-Ball Difference was the original name, but the acronym (RABD) isn’t very mouth-friendly. DRAB sits better, in one’s gob, and adds a touch of irony.

WHAT IS IT THEN?

In T20 cricket, and other limited overs contests, run-rates and required run-rates can be a little deceptive. In 50 over cricket, in particular, the required run-rate appears to react very sluggishly to developments in the game. In T20 cricket, the same is true at the start of the innings, so the progress (or otherwise) of your team can be difficult to ascertain.

DRAB IN ACTION … http://www.birdfolk.co.uk/cricmob

IN SHORT – the more this number climbs, the better your team is doing. If it drops, or becomes negative, progress is being checked.

DETAILS
I propose a simple statistical alternative: the “run-a-ball difference”. In all limited overs cricket the idea of scoring at a run-a-ball has long been something of a benchmark – while 120 represents a poor score in T20, 300 has long been the sign of a good score in ODIs. Observing the difference between a team’s current score and the score that they would have had they scored at a run-a-ball is a useful way to judge your team’s progress.

For example, when setting a score, your team has 60 from the first 8 overs – a run-rate of 7.5 per over. This equates to +12 using the “run-a-ball difference”. 8 overs at a run-a-ball is 48 runs so, with 60 runs, the team are 12 ahead of that. Say they score 20 off the next 2 overs, reaching 80 from 10, a run-rate of 8 .. that doesn’t sound like a terribly big increase, but in terms of the run-a-ball difference, they have from from +12 to +20, perhaps illustrating the improvement in a more tangible fashion.

One may apply run-a-ball difference slightly differently when a team is chasing a score: for example your opponents have made 175. At the beginning of the chase, the run-a-ball difference is 55 … a run-a-ball provides 120 and your team needs to find an “extra” 55 runs. A few overs go by and your team is 60 from 8 with 115 runs still required from 72 balls – a run-rate of 7.5 and a required run-rate of 9.6. Looking alone at either the 7.5 or the 9.6, it can be hard to know how your team is doing, but run-a-ball difference is now 43 (115 runs required minus 72 balls left). The fact that 43 is a fair chunk less than the initial 55, helps me understand that progress is being made.

Ceefax Report – England vs Sri Lanka – Test 1 – 2016

Tags

Headingley, James Anderson, Jonny Bairstow, Kusal Mendis, Rabada, Sri Lanka, Test Cricket

In this test match Sri Lanka were confronted by a perfect storm.

Their legends have retired, some of their new guys haven’t quite
cemented their places, the clouds were looming, it was May, England were still cross about 2014, Anderson was well rested, and Bairstow was bristling.

10 for 45.

25.1 overs – eleven maidens – forty-five runs – ten wickets.

Jonathan Marc Bairstow was astonishing too. In bowling conditions only two players scored a number of runs are a good rate – Jonny B and Kusal Mendis. Jonny rode is luck, surviving three reviewed decisions, and went on to be the test’s only century-maker. You may not know that is first class average is almost 48 – you might be less surprised after this match.

I like looking at form of current players, they waver more than career averages and rankings, and as a result often surprised you. This year’s test averages are odd, as we’re only in May, and are easily inflated by one good performance. But do not forget the name Rabada!

 

Pathetic Points System

Tags

Andrew Strauss, Bilateral, cricket, Points System, Tests

At least that’s what everyone appears to be saying.
I wrote a response to the 12th Man letter written (possibly) by Andrew Strauss.
I imagine it will disappear into a spam/junk/clutter filter of some kind.
But here, for your pleasure, are my brief thoughts on the idea:

Hi Andrew,
Thanks for your letter 😉
I’m a fan of the points system. I heard, on the radio today, a very typical English reaction. The kind of thing I’ve been guilty of myself many times.

Dear old Aggers (I think it was) suggested that the points system might make a captain more concerned about chasing a win, and consequently they might be more defensive. Therefore, it’s a bad idea.

OK – maybe that *could* happen. How about the reverse – it could make a captain MORE aggressive. (S)He might be desperate for extra points to help win the series. How very English it was to dwell only on the negative.

I cannot honestly see a problem beyond the impossibility to please everyone with the amount of points awarded for each type of game played.

Yours spiffingly,
Dave.

England’s Next Opener – A Good Story

Tags

Alastair Cook, Alex Hales, Ben Duckett, Chris Dent, Daniel Bell-Drummond, England openers, James Vince, Jason Roy, Sam Robson, Steve Mullaney, Tom Westley

England have had a problem in the last few years; not one of Alastair Cook’s many and varied opening parters has managed to cement his place in the team. Conventional wisdom has suggested that, across the counties, no-one else has “knocked the door down” – via weight of runs – to stake a claim either. This is bad; worse than a problem in the middle order, for it puts the side on the back foot right away. People are suggesting moving Root up the order; I’m against that. For whatever reason many batters prefer batting in one position and, for my money, Joe Root isn’t broken so let’s not “fix” him.

The above table shows the top 10 run makers in English first class cricket, this year. Some familiar names, some new names, a lot of runs. It’s really nice to see Mr Cook there too, that bodes well for England.

Now look at this next table. I have removed all the players who are not England-qualified opening batsmen (as in, opening for their county, this year). SEVEN of the top ten batters, thus far, are openers. Only one has partnered Ali Cook before (Robson) so there are, potentially, five choices – none of them would be poor. And that doesn’t count the not-wild possibilities that Alex Hales might keep his place, Jason Roy could be tried (though he doesn’t open for Surrey, he has shown great character in the international side) and James Vince has been close to contention.

Who knows what will happen? I sure don’t. But it should be great to find out!

Joe Root is Ruining English Cricket

Tags

Cardiff, English Cricket, Joe root, Root of all Evil

What does he think he is doing? Scoring rapid and orthodox hundreds. Scoring well in all forms of the game. Catching well, and even taking wickets.

He must be the worst thing to happen to English cricket for decades.

When KP was blazing a trail we could blame his brashness, his arrogance, his sixes, and his success on being South African. We can’t with Joe Root. He’s from Yorkshire – heck, we can’t even blame the weather.

We can no longer blame the short comings of the county system. We can’t blame football, we can’t blame Peter Moores, we can’t blame the ECB, and we can’t even blame ourselves.

If Joe Root can be this bloody good with all of our traditionally, and deeply held, British handicaps cricket will suffer. We’re a nation of moaners and he is ruining everything.

Joe Root … thanks for nothing.

Probab Ali Moeen

Tags

Adil Rashid, England Selection, James Tredwell, Moeen Ali, Spin Bowling

Moeen is potenti-Ali (sorry) the most significant newcomer to the England test (and ODI) teams in recent years. For the longest time have England craved a batsman who can bowl more than “part time” spin. It enables the easy selection of two spinners on turning tracks, and the option to always have a spinner – even when you don’t think you need one – on green seaming wickets, for example (though I personally loathe that view).

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, I don’t wish to talk him up right now – I aim to defend him for what I expect will be a very ordinary game for him – this, the second test vs the West Indies.

When he was first selected, he was under only a little pressure. He was batting well, and Cook barely bowled him. Genuine expectations of him, as a spinner, were low. And whenever he bowled a good ball people were surprised and happy. And the more he bowled the better he got. In the end, we all believed.

Then injury. And James Tredwell … a 100% bona fide spinner. Of considerable years and experience. Not flashy, but accurate and steady. And looks 300 years old. Almost. And he bowled terrifically well in the first innings, taking 4 for spit. BUT he “only” took one more wicket in the 2nd innings and was dropped – due to injury claim some.

This time Moeen was selected, on what would likely be a spinning track, with the expectation of bowling out the WI in their second innings when Tredwell couldn’t. To me this is wholly unfair. With this knowledge of replacing a genuine spinner in the team can come only pressure. And for what is, without question, the 2nd string to his bow.

I thought of penning this early on day, but because I’m lazy I didn’t get around to it until now (tea-time on day 4). Sadly – thus far – it doesn’t look good for our story’s hero. I’d not be surprised if this pressure (however unwittingly) causes his loose shot in the first innings and his run-out in the second. He is bowling a bit better in the 2nd innings, but I’ll not be shocked if Root (again) returns the better figures.

I hope I’m wrong and that Moeen can rise to the occasion but, for me, he’ll be a much better player if he is the 2nd spinner in the side (pick Ali AND Rashid) or the one spinner who is only called upon for smaller spells.

Remember when he looked like this?

New Statistical Worst For England

Tags

10th wicket, Anguish, England, Last Wicket, Polish off the tail, Rubbish England

England are more than twice as bad as anyone else

We all know that England are rubbish. When they lose we (their fans) just know that they suck. And Wins are only the result of poor opposition, good players missing, great teams under-performing, or some horrible fluke.

Firmly believing this, I wanted to prove that England are the worst at bowling out 10th wicket partnerships. It wasn’t hard. Cricinfo has this wonderful list of the top 50 best, most horrible, 10th wicket stands. I figured that England appeared a lot in that list: as the victim – obviously. After twisting a SUMIF statement I produced the simple table to your right. It tells you that England are easily twice as bad as everyone else at conceding runs to the worst batters in the other team. Whoops.

OK, I know that with historical cricket stats, England and Australia are likely to have skewed results because they have played more matches but, even so, it isn’t something to stick on your bedroom wall. Unless you’re a REAL England fan.

Do not look at this.

In the interests of fair play, I think England fans should ignore the table to the left which shows that even though they are TERRIBLE at bowling out numbers 10 and 11, their own numbers 10 and 11 aren’t the worst. Shame on you England – stop being decent, I can’t cope.

What else stands out from this table is that, given how (relatively) few test matches that New Zealand have played, they’ve had more than a few decent digs from their rats and mice down the order – fear them.

<– (total runs scored by 10th wicket partnerships, per country, from the top 50)

 

The Problem With Eoin

Tags

Eoin Morgan, Joe root, ODIs, Test Cricket

Eoin Morgan has been, for a few years, one of England’s very best ODI cricketers. He hits the ball cleanly, and he stays in long enough to make hundreds. Clearly he isn’t daunted by the “big stage”.

Why then has he not managed to make the same impact at First Class or Test level? He scores slowly and can even get completely stuck. However, in the current round of county cricket, he made an aggressive 191 – with 29 fours and 2 sixes. Interestingly, this very impressive innings backs my theory.

I think he struggles to “tick over”, keep the score going, get off strike etc. This produces a perceived pressure and culminates in him making an over-attacking shot, which often goes wrong, and consequently he only scores big when he’s having a REALLY good day.

His innings of 191, from 265 balls contained 128 runs in boundaries … 67% of his total. Contrast this with Joe Root’s recent test hundred – 200 from 298 balls, with 16 fours – only 32% of his runs in boundaries. Both batsmen scored at over 4 runs per over, yet Joe Root ticks the score along with relative ease and I believe this helps him as much as it hinders Eoin. Root is thus able to play simple shots to “tick over” that don’t require the same degree of risk or difficulty.

England County Form XI

Tags

County Cricket, England, Sri Lanka, Test Match

So, what if the England XI for this upcoming test series vs Sri Lanka was chosen purely on county form? Sure there’d be some changes, right? But how many? Let’s have a look at the top of the batting & bowling tables. Of course, I will remain unable to pick incredible imports like Saeed Ajmal. Below are my picks, along with a pure guess at their chance of playing for England in the next 12 months.

County cricket stats from early 2014

THE OPENERS – an easy choice here. They own the top two spots, and open for their counties.

Adam Lyth – Peanut.
Yorkshire – left hand bat..

Age 26 – with 5561 runs at 40.29, with 10 hundreds, 37 fifties.

A solid player who has really excelled in a few seasons, struggled last year (if memory serves) but I’m glad to see him back in form.

England chances – 10%

 

Daryl Mitchell – Mitch.
Worcestershire – right hand bat.

Age 30 – with 7748 runs at 40.14, with 17 hundreds, 34 fifties.

He always appears to score runs without screaming his name. The kinda guy that Worcestershire fans will love, but others might not know so well.

England chances – 0%

 

THE ENGINE ROOM – the middle order. Simply the next most highly scoring batsmen, which happily includes an all-rounder for that perfect balance that we all crave.

Ed Joyce – Spud.
Sussex – left hand bat.

Age 35 – with 14,688 runs at 47.38, with 36 hundreds, 79 fifties.

A quality player who has played at the top level, for England and Ireland, but never quite hit the same heights as he did domestically. A mini Hick/Ramprakash?

England chances – 5%

 

James Vince.
Hampshire – right hand bat.

Age 23 – with 4411 runs at 40.10, with 12 hundreds, 18 fifties.

A young lad who already has a solid record and a very impressive 50s to 100s ratio. He has already played for the Lions so an eye must be upon him already. Not yet having a nickname may go against him.

England chances – 15%
(His chances depend on the success of the current new boys.)

 

Samit Patel.
Nottinghamshire – right hand bat (slow left arm).

Age 29 – with 12,849 runs at 40.36, with 20 hundreds, 40 fifties.

Like Ed Joyce Samit has already played for England and many people wanted him in the squad. When he was younger, I hope he could be England very own Potato – you know – like the mighty Inzamam-Ul-Haq. I didn’t make that comparison lightly, Samit averaged over 50 earlier in his 20s. His offspin is also handy and adds great balance to any team as a 5th bowler.

England chances – 10%
(Only so low because Moeen Ali has been picking ahead of him in the current squad.)

William Bragg.
Glamorgan – left hand bat.

Age 27 – with 3513 runs at 31.08, with 2 hundreds, 23 fifties.

Listed as a wicket keeper but currently batting at number 3. Clearly a great year for the lad, but one season doesn’t get you picked for your national team. Hopefully good form will continue and we’ll know his name better in the future.

England chances – 0%

THE WICKET KEEPER – the highest scoring ‘keeper is Riki Wessels but he currently does have the gloves for Notts, so his colleague makes my list.

Chris Read – Reados.
Nottinghamshire – right hand bat.

Age 35 – with 13,716 runs at 36.67, with 21 hundreds and 76 fifties.

He has been my favourite ‘keeper in the country for over a dozen years. Genuinely pugnacious, and appears to live nothing more than getting his team out of a tight spot. Arguably the best “gloveman” in the country. I still think England should pick him.

England changes – 0%

THE BOWLERS – without these guys you cannot win a test match. Fact.

Will Gidman – Gidders.
Gloucestershire – right arm medium (left hand bat).

Age 29 – with 186 wickets at 20.30 (also 2140 runs at 36.27).

More of an all-rounder than I’d previously realised and not to be confused on scorecards with his older brother who is also an all-rounder, but more of a batsman. Suffers from a terrible nickname, but it is a mystery to me, with bowling figures like this, why he hasn’t even featured for the Lions.

England chances – 15%
(I hope I’m wrong!)

Jack Brooks.
Yorkshire(!) – right arm medium fast (right hand bat).

Age 30 – with 190 wickets at 27.15 (also 509 runs at 13.05).

A sweat-band touting and excitable bowler who powers the ball down as much by force of will as anything else. Draws the faces of the oppositions 3 most dangerous batsmen on eggs and eats them before matches. OK, not true, but it would be fun. He has played for the Lions … there are those that wanted him in this squad too. You get the feeling he’d never willingly let his captain down.

England chances – 25%

Mark Footitt.
Derbyshire – left arm fast medium (right hand bat).

Age 28 – with 137 wickets at 30.03 (also 354 runs at 7.69).

Possibly not reached the heights he hoped for having played for England’s U19 team. Derbyshire have produced a good few quicks over the years. Being a left armer suits this team down to the ground. not sure he’s on the selection radar right now, but there’s no reason he couldn’t get there. Obviously having a great season thus far.

England chances – 0%

Adam Riley.
Kent – right arm offbreak (right hand bat).

Age 22 – with 70 wickets at 31.30 (also 186 runs at 7.75).

The second of two batting rabbits, but they’re here for wickets! Not well known before this season where he has excelled. With English spinners thin on the ground, he could well get a chance . but probably not in the next 12 months.

England chances – 0%

 

SUMMARY

Even though this unorthodox selection method features no current England players, I hope it has introduced you to a few new players on the county season. This selection method would never work though, as current England players play fewer games for their counties. Still, when picking a replacement player, I deeply wish they’d pay more attention to current county form.

SCOTTY BORTHWICK for 12th man. Because I like him.

Graeme Swann, Geoff Boycott, and I.

Tags

cricket, Geoff Boycott, Graeme Swann

But mostly them.

Graeme made me scream happily, 255 times, for every 29.96 squirms – the most successful English spinner in the history of test cricket.

In the year 2000 (I was a fan of his county numbers) and I rang “Test Match Special”. I asked Sir Geoffrey Boycott if the young lad, who had scored a few first class hundreds and had a few score of first class wickets, would get a go …. “do you watch cricket” was the surly reply.

Eight years (and 255 wickets) later Sir Geoff could have eaten his words, but I’m sure it was me that was wrong.

Now Graeme has retired – and as England’s most successful test spin bowler in history. I freely admit that he is the type of cricketer that I always wanted to be – sarcasm and all. The confidence with which he gave the press exactly what they wanted but not quite the sound-bite that they were expecting, was lovely.

Graeme, thank you.
Boycott – don’t be so quick to judge.

GRAEME’S NUMBERS:
http://www.espncricinfo.com/england/content/player/20431.html